Control of the U.S. House of Representatives, at this point in the election cycle, is anybody’s guess.
Right now, the House is divided by just one or two votes, with Republicans clinging to the slimmest of majorities. The Democratic Party is similarly fighting to keep control of the Senate, where it has a one-seat majority.
At first glance, it may appear that House Democrats have the better chance of seizing the majority in 2025 than Republicans do. Republicans occupy 17 districts won by President Biden in 2020, while Democrats hold just five districts won by former President Donald J. Trump.
But the general rule is, as goes the presidential race, so go House races, because partisanship and turnout can hold more sway than personal knowledge of the candidates. Here are the types of races to watch that could decide control of the House.
Incumbent Republicans in districts won by Biden: Reliably blue states
California is a key battleground in the fight for the House majority in 2024. Even if the presidential race is not competitive, the race for an open Senate seat could juice turnout. Here, Democrats see a number of prime pickup opportunities in the form of Republicans who hold seats in districts that Mr. Biden swept, in some cases by double digits, in the last presidential election. However, some of these same districts swung toward Republicans in the 2022 midterms, illustrating the tossup nature of many of these areas.
