How Russian and Chinese Interference Could Affect the 2024 Election

The U.S. government is preparing for its adversaries to intensify efforts to influence American voters next year. Russia has huge stakes in the presidential election. China seems poised to back a more aggressive campaign. Other countries, like Iran, might again try to sow division in the United States.

As Washington looks ahead to the 2024 vote, U.S. intelligence agencies last week released a report on the 2022 midterm elections — a document that gives us some hints about what might be to come.

Spy agencies concluded Russia favored Trump in 2016. What about in 2024?

Russia appears to be paying close attention to the election, as its war in Ukraine is soon to enter a third year.

Former President Donald J. Trump, the leading Republican candidate, has expressed skepticism about Ukraine funding. President Biden has argued that assisting Ukraine is in America’s interest.

While there remains bipartisan support for Ukraine, Russia is focused on weakening Democrats to prevent the United States from providing more aid in the years to come.

In 2022, the intelligence report found, Russia attempted to denigrate Democrats, including by amplifying allegations of corruption by Mr. Biden’s family, in large measure because of his administration’s support for Ukraine.