Polls

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Three Theories for Why Trump’s Primary Results Are Not Matching Expectations

He has underperformed the polls in each of the first three contests.

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News

A Trump Conviction Could Cost Him Enough Voters to Tip the Election

Recent general-election polling has generally shown Donald Trump maintaining a slight lead over President Biden. Yet many of those polls…

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News

Why Biden’s Weakness Among Young Voters Should Be Taken Seriously

Almost all the polling shows the same pattern. Could the coming campaign restore Democrats’ usual advantage?

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News

The Crisis in Issue Polling, and What We’re Doing About It

A poll can be very close to the actual result but miss the key story line. We’ll try new question…

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Newyork

In Ecuador, an Assassination Brings a Turning Point

Genevieve Glatsky, a reporter for the Andes bureau, discussed the assassination of Fernando Villavicencio, a presidential candidate who exposed governmental…

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News

How Did We Do? A Review of 2022 Before Our First Poll of 2023.

Trying to learn from a strong midterm run as we start surveying the G.O.P. primary.

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News

Wait, the Campaign Is Halfway Done?

In the so-called invisible primary, there’s often a clear relationship between early polling and the eventual outcome.

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News

Is Trump Way Up or Way Down?

The polls are surprisingly divided, but higher-quality surveys point to an answer.

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News

Answering Reader Questions on a Covid Effect, Gerrymandering and More

How much did coronavirus deaths, redistricting and voter suppression matter in the last election?

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News

The ‘Red Wave’ Washout: How Skewed Polls Fed a False Election Narrative

The errant surveys spooked some candidates into spending more money than necessary, and diverted help from others who otherwise had…

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